Brazil's soyabean

Brazil’s 2016/2017 grain harvest will reach 213.1 MMT (Million Metric Tons), an increase of 14.2%, the country’s grain agency CONAB said Thursday.

Favorable weather conditions and forecasts for Brazil make a good harvest likely, according to officials, and come after last year’s harvest devastated crops.

Brazil ‘s planting is almost 93% complete, while weather issues have slowed Argentina, with planting 48% complete, according to Water Street Solutions, of Peoria, Ill.

Here are some key estimates by CONAB:

  • Soybean production of 102.45 MMT, up 7.3%
  • Total corn production of 83.81 MMT, up 26%
  • Corn Production (first crop) of 27.7 MMT
  • Corn Production (second crop) of 56.1 MMT
  • Wheat production, 2016, of 6.7 MMT, up 21 percent
  • Planted grains area of 59.2 million hectares, up 1.4 percent
  • Total planted soybeans area of 33.9 million hectares, up 2 percent

Brazil’s estimates of agricultural output differ slightly from analysts. For example, Brazil’s puts soybean output slightly above trade estimates, while total corn production estimate is slightly lower.

Analysts will be focusing on USDA’s South American crop production estimates in Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Soybean production by state in Brazil.
Soybean production by state in Brazil.

Here are the trade estimates of  USDA key numbers for South American crop production:

  • Estimated Brazil soybean production of 102.24 MMT, up from 102 MMT.
  • Estimated Brazil corn production of 84.69 MMT, up from 83.50 MMT.
  • Estimated Argentina soybean production of 56.62 MMT, down from 57 MMT in November’s USDA report.
  • Estimated Argentina corn production of 36.41 MMT, down from 36.50 MMT.

Analysts are also keeping a close watch on weather in Argentina, where unexpected dryness could threaten key parts of the country’s corn belt.

Carlos Monteiro is a Brazilian citizen, graduated in Business Administration by the Catholic University of São Paulo. He lives in Odense, Denmark with his Danish Wife, Cathrine, and their half Danish /Brazilian daughter Ines Marie. You are very welcome to be in contact him at any time.
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