Brazil is experiencing a unique moment in many ways, contradicting what a lot people have been saying…
You will probably start this read thinking: “Brazil is a country that does not work, and it won’t work. In fact, a country where education is inadequate; health care is poor and sometimes kills up people by commiting unnaceptable errors and with one of the highest tax burdens of the world… Brazil is bound to go wrong” .
That is how Ricardo Amorim, an economist at Manhattan Connection, began his lecture at the Wide Open Business convention.
Brazil is “doomed” to succeed, nevertheless, the Brazilian bureaucracy is so evolved that puts a break in this process. According to Amorim, the Brazilian bureaucracy is so developed and complicated that it should be named “dumbeaucracy”, as it prevents ideas and projects to go forward.
To aggravate the situation we should not forget the corruption that still affects Brazil. But even with all those negative factors Amorim affirms that Brazil is “sentenced” to succeed.
Within the last decade, the Brazilian growth was two times bigger than if compared with the previous decade.
Think about this… The situation is so favorable that immigrants are now choosing Brazil to enter illegally in the country… This has become a new type of concert for the Brazilian government.
Never before in Brazilian sports history, have so many football players decided to stay in Brazil
How China Contributed for this
Amorim adds that Chinese migration (exodus) has been the major drive for the Brazilian growth. Chinese migration turned the world “upside down” . As more Chineses move in to larger cities, more infrastructure is required in order to support the demand.
The civil construction industry grows at a fast pace, while the agricultural sector in China slows down. This demmand created a need for food. The agricultural sector in Brazil, which is very productive, was able to supply food to China.
This Chinese “hunger” contributed significantly to the increase of exports of raw materials and it was a great incentive for emerging countries to compete in other commercial areas against other nations.
The Demographic Bonus
Brazil also counts with the demographic bonus. The Brazilian age pyramid is favorable when compared to developed countries.
Besides the agricultural products, the construction industry needs materials to keep up with the growth of the Chinese cities. That is why the Brazilian exports have been growing considerably over the past years.
Challenges and Opportunities
On the political side Dilma ( From the Workers Party) will have to take tough decisions to regain trust and put Brazil on track to growth again.
The latest elections have proven that the Brazilian population is divided. The recent Petrobras scandal and a possible hydric regime – pointing a possible energy rationing in 2015 – are the greatest risks for Dilma’s initial term in 2015.
Dilma has to prove that she will take actions to stimulate the internal production and increase productivity. Amorim finishes saying he is not sure which economic policies Dilma will be adopting for 2015, but he adds she is intelligent, and she knows she needs to regain trust.
This post was adapted from an interview given by Ricardo Amorim
“Ricardo Amorim is an economist, consultant, host of Manhattan Connection of Globonews, columnist IstoÉ magazine and president of RICAM Consulting (www.ricamconsultoria.com.br). Lectures around the world on economic prospects and opportunities in various sectors and is the only Brazilian on the list of Speakers Corner of the best and most important global speakers”.